The Collective Futures
In the past few years, engaging with some of the most successful and powerful corporations across industries on Futures Thinking, we see clear patterns emerging.
Leaders in many industries are similarly concerned, perplexed, shortsighted, narrow-sighted, and discouraged, while also similarly motivated and aware.
Similarly concerned and motivated: Across the board, leaders are concerned about similar macro climate issues, excited yet intimidated by the advancement of emerging technologies, and eager to find white spaces for their businesses to excel ahead of competition.
Similarly perplexed: We’ve heard the same tone repeatedly when discussing uncertainties with these leaders and industry experts: we just don’t know, it could be either way. Almost all leaders agree that there’s something pivotal on the horizon, for their industry and their business, and it’s too “foggy” to know how it will show up and hit them.
Similarly shortsighted: Despite the awareness of such uncertainties, strategies tend to be only set in the short term(6 months to 18 months, depending on the industry), rarely even in medium term (2-3 years, depending on the industry), and are mostly based on continuation of current situations, with little to no consideration of potentially pivotal factors. In a survey with executives in 30+ leading organizations in Agriculture, an industry impacted by long-term factors such as climate change, policy and regulations, and labor shortage, typically requiring a long lead time for planning, we learned that most only considered 1-2-year strategies.
Part of the shortsightedness can be attributed to the difficulties of longer-term strategies due to reasons stated in 1 and 2 above, plus the increased pressure on short-term performance, and the increasingly shortened tenure of C-level executives (the median tenure among S&P 500 company CEOs has decreased by 20%, from six years in 2013 to 4.8 years in 2022. https://www.equilar.com/blogs/558-ceo-tenure-rates.html)Similarly narrow sighted: Even though scenario planning is not new to the corporate world, it’s being used by many organizations as a risk mitigation tool, rather than a way to achieve clarity of a fuller picture, to proactively take actions to shape/change the trajectory of trends, or a competitive boost with new opportunities. Neither creativity nor the true power of strategic foresight has been leveraged in strategy.
Similarly discouraged: The complexity and uncertainty, the shortened tenure and horizon to deliver results, and the lack of tools created a self-perpetuating cycle. Leaders are discouraged from having big and bold visions, investing in innovative explorations and implementations, and achieving longer-term success and greater impact beyond the bottom lines of the organization. What’s being missed in this cycle is innovation, sustained growth opportunities, and initiatives that contribute to the larger good for the community, society and the world.
It’s too easy to abandon strategies that are more beneficial in the long run, to put off initiatives that don’t have the direct, immediate, measurable ROI, and to neglect environmental and societal responsibilities.
It’s not surprising that the desire to address larger problems, larger responsibilities, and larger potential opportunities comes up as soon as we start to look further out into the future.
With the Futures approach, we facilitate conversations, workshops, and projects to help leaders temporarily lift their heads from the weight of everyday operations and quarterly reports, to see the paths ahead, to realize the power their organizations actually have in choosing, creating, and shaping the future. We instill a new mindset and toolkit for embracing rather than running away from uncertainties, using creative tools to generate innovative ideas, and charting a roadmap toward what’s desirable.
In an engagement with an electric vehicle client in Latin America, we guided the team to ideate in 4 distinct future scenarios, one of which is a risky scenario, where nearly everything works against their business: infrastructure development, such as charging stations, remains limited; international trade policies for importing vehicles and parts from Asia are unfavorable; and consumers hesitate due to tightened purse strings amid a local economic downturn.
Despite the challenges, the group of leaders assigned to this scenario didn’t let the doom and gloom stop them. Two hours later, the “risky group” developed a brilliant business idea that could turn the challenge into an opportunity for market penetration ahead of their competitors, who would face and likely crumble under the same macro conditions. With this idea, they could excel their business: enter the market earlier, solidify a leading position, establish the brand quickly, and eventually dominate the market with exceptional customer experiences. Beyond business success, they would also foster environmental consciousness in their society, provide more access for those who are less privileged to own a vehicle right out of school, and reward consumers who are willing to break away from their old ways of living for the good of the world.
(Read more about why dystopia like this is precious in a detailed case study)
We know it works because we’ve done projects like this repeatedly with many leaders. But we don’t want to stop there.
Furthermore, we aspire to facilitate a shift in leaders across industries to be more daring with their goals and more responsible with their environmental and societal duties, so that we are more able to collectively create a better future together, for all of us.
There’s more work to be done, and we are ready and excited. What’s your vision for a better future? What do you think can be done but are not certain about the outcome? Do you believe that together we can create larger impacts and achieve bolder goals? Please let us know how we can help you!
Additional reads on collective foresight
Innovation: Your solution for weathering uncertainty By Matt Banholzer, Michael Birshan, Rebecca Doherty, and Laura LaBerge “…by taking defensive measures such as conserving cash while also going on the offense, “ambidextrous leaders” create value despite volatility, setting up their organizations to thrive in a world that has likely changed in fundamental ways.” https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/innovation-your-solution-for-weathering-uncertainty
How strategic foresight can help leaders plan for a changing world By World Economic Forum “Strategic foresight also promotes stakeholder participation and mediation in debating and exploring plausible and desirable futures. This should happen across public and private organizations to ensure inclusion of diverse perspectives and greater resilience to emerging challenges.” https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2024/06/strategic-foresight-help-leaders-plan-for-a-changing-world/
Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability By Sylvia L. R. Wood, Amy Luers, Jennifer Garard, Ajay Gambhir, Kalpana Chaudhari, Maria Ivanova and Casey Cronin “Charting robust pathways towards more sustainable futures that ‘leave no one behind’ requires that diverse communities engage in collective foresight and intelligence exercises to better understand global systemic challenges, anticipate the emerging risks and opportunities that disruptions present, and share perspectives on how to respond and inform decision-making.” https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/global-sustainability/article/collective-foresight-and-intelligence-for-sustainability/0D52E35EB2AD041E853C26A68A0C78DC