Why Dystopia is Precious
One of my favorite projects in Futures was with an electric vehicle (EV) client in Latin America, aiming to strategize based on the EV market’s 5-10 year outlook in their major metropolis.
The team conducted thorough research using the STEEEP framework, analyzing dozens of trends and several uncertainties. We presented eight future scenarios as compelling, visualized stories during a co-creation workshop with the client’s multi-disciplinary team. At the workshop, the client’s team reviewed the scenarios and voted on their top four to focus on: the most probable, the most interesting, the most preferable, and the most risky.
In the most risky scenario, nearly everything worked against their budding business: infrastructure development, such as charging stations, remains limited; international trade policies for importing vehicles and parts from Asia are unfavorable; and consumers hesitate due to tightened purse strings amid a local economic downturn.
Despite the challenges, the group of leaders assigned to this scenario didn’t let the doom and gloom stop them. Two hours later, the “risky group” developed a brilliant business idea that could turn the challenge into an opportunity for market penetration ahead of their competitors, who would face and likely crumble under the same macro conditions. With this idea, they could excel their business: enter the market earlier, solidify a leading position, establish the brand quickly, and eventually dominate the market with exceptional customer experiences. Beyond business success, they would also foster environmental consciousness in their society, provide more access for those who are less privileged to own a vehicle right out of school, and reward consumers who are willing to break away from their old ways of living for the good of the world.
The ideas generated in the most preferred and most probable scenarios were great, as expected, since they aligned with the company’s current focus. However, the idea from the risky scenario was the one that made everyone stop, think, and then nod, smile, and cheer.
The client quickly moved on to developing a pilot plan to test this idea with a nominal investment.
In my closing remarks at the workshop, I thanked everyone for giving me goosebumps by demonstrating the true power of Futures work.
Without this approach, the risky scenarios would not have received the analyses, attention, and understanding they deserved. Leaders might have shied away from less-than-promising future outcomes or merely treated them as risk mitigation, missing out on potential opportunities that can be equally, if not more, powerful than those in “better” scenarios.
We often forget that adversity is typically faced by our competitors as well, leading us to overlook precious competitive advantages. Opportunities belong to those who dare to stare adversity in the eye and remain creative and strategic despite the difficulties.
Dystopias, or adverse future scenarios, are not merely cautionary tales when used strategically. They provide more value than provocation for critical thinking. The storytelling, when done right, helps us immerse in scenarios including the good and the bad ones, setting us up to suspend disbelief and feel compelled, courageous, and energized to play in the sandboxes of imagination.
Additional reads, especially in times of uncertainty:
The power of play in times of uncertainty: “Studies confirm that pretend-play interactions can help children enhance these executive functions, while adults who perform above average on creativity also perform significantly better on executive function.” according to this FastCo. article: https://www.fastcompany.com/90593529/in-times-of-uncertainty-our-most-creative-thoughts-can-happen-through-play
Scenario planning for leaders: “Scenario planning is a must-use tool for functional leaders to drive immediate actions, decisions and longer-term plans. Know what it is, what it does and how to use it.” https://www.gartner.com/smarterwithgartner/what-functional-leaders-should-know-about-scenario-planning
A sure bet to weathering uncertainty: “When the times get tough, the tough get innovative and create paths to future growth.” https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/strategy-and-corporate-finance/our-insights/innovation-your-solution-for-weathering-uncertainty